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Prediction for CME (2024-05-29T14:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-29T14:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31200/-1
CME Note: There is no clear arrival signature observed for this CME at L1. Large, bright partial halo CME to east in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source of this CME is the X1.4 class flare from AR13697 with associated moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 193, 171, and GOES SUVI 284. Additionally, a thin filament ejecta was visible during the eruption as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Post-eruptive arcades followed the flare as seen in SDO/AIA 193 and 171.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-01T11:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

Event id="415"

:Issued: 2024 May 30 1235 UTC
:Product: documentation at https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sidc.be%2Fproducts%2Fmeu&data=05%7C02%7Channah.hermann%40nasa.gov%7C6d70786e15624a8432c108dc80a53f91%7C7005d45845be48ae8140d43da96dd17b%7C0%7C0%7C638526694439788294%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=oWvQf4ZBahJBaRAJLa02ki85sYZWg%2FRfKR8MuK1i1ao%3D&reserved=0
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40530
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 May 2024, 1233UT
...
Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar activity was high over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was a long duration X1.4 flare with peak time 14:37 UTC May 29 from Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 3697).
Type II and Type IV radio emission were detected associated with this event. This region also produced an M2.5 flare with peak time 12:55 UTC May 29. Catania sunspot group 27 (NOAA AR 3695) with peak time 11:21 UTC.
Further M-class flares, including an M5.7 and an M2.7 flare, with peak times 18:41 UTC and 18:28 UTC on May 29, respectively, were recorded from Catania sunspot group 22 (NOAA AR 3691). The rest of the regions were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a chance for further X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 14:48 UTC May 29. The CME is mostly directed to the east and an has estimated projected velocity around 600 km/s and is related to the X1.4 flare with peak time 14:37 UTC, from NOAA AR 3397. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could possibly arrive at Earth on June 1.

Lead Time: 46.77 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-05-30T12:14Z

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